Southeast River Forecasting Center – Watershed and Reservoir Model Calibrations, Software Enhancements

Riverside Technology, inc. (RTi) worked with the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) to improve forecasting capabilities in parts of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The projects were conducted as part of the National Weather Service (NWS) implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) program. RTi analyzed historical precipitation and streamflow data, computed mean areal precipitation (MAP) and reservoir inflow time series, and reviewed all data for quality and consistency. RTi then calibrated the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), the Unit Hydrograph Model, and the LAG/K

B. Everett Jordan Dam in Cape Fear Basin, NC

model for 56 forecast points in the Tar, Neuse, Cape Fear, Roanoke, Pee Dee, Chowan, Santee, Waccamaw, and Edisto River Basins in Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. An additional 7 forecast points were calibrated in the St. Johns River basin in Florida to support a dynamic model of the system.

In addition, NWS reservoir models (RES-SNGL and RES-J) were reviewed for 24 reservoirs in Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The models were re-calibrated as necessary to enhance forecasts at their locations and downstream points. Flood control, hydropower, and multi-objective reservoir operations were calibrated using the most appropriate reservoir model as determined through a review process. In addition, the RES-J modeling capabilities for hydropower simulation and inflow calculations were enhanced through further software development and testing. The models are being implemented operationally by SERFC in order to provide improved AHPS forecast products.

SERFC Area of Responsibility

2290 East Prospect Road, Suite 1, Fort Collins, Colorado 80525
phone: (970) 484–7573  fax: (970) 484–7593 www.riverside.com