North Central River Forecast Center – Hydrologic Calibration Analyses

The National Weather Service (NWS) North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) was tasked with implementing the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) across their area of responsibility.

Radar-derived Mean Areal Precipitation

This involved calibrating the basins, recalibrating and updating areas of concern, and correcting calibrations that are questionable during periods of extreme flow.

Riverside Technology, inc. (RTi) conducted time series processing and calibration of the NWS River Forecast System in support of AHPS. This entailed development activities necessary to begin calibrating those sub-basins scheduled within the next year for operational implementation as forecast points. In addition, a consistent set of extended input data was developed for mean areal temperature (MAT) and mean areal precipitation (MAP). Furthermore, selected basins were reviewed and re-calibrated based on deficient operational forecasting results during recent high-flow periods. These activities were accomplished in coordination with NCRFC personnel.

Lake of the Woods in North Central Minnesota

RTi investigated selected existing basin calibrations and modified them as needed. This involved investigating and correcting and/or enhancing existing sub-basin calibrations. Time-series data needed to investigate these calibrations was developed and used. MAT and MAP time-series were updated to include data through 1999. Data inputs from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) formed the basis for the time-series processing. To support the advancement of AHPS activities in the NCRFC area, additional AHPS forecast points were calibrated. New calibrations were developed to allow implementation of these points in the operational forecast system.

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phone: (970) 484–7573  fax: (970) 484–7593 www.riverside.com