Mexico – River Forecast System Development

The rivers that spring from Mexico’s diverse climate vary from those that flow continuously and flood frequently to those prone to occasional severe flooding separated by extended dry periods. Mexico has a well-developed precipitation and streamflow monitoring network, but has lacked an effective river forecasting program for both short-term flood warning as well as for longer term water resource planning. Mexico’s Comision Nacional del Agua (CNA) needed a system for river forecasting that could be integrated with its existing hydrometeorologic data collection infrastructure, meet flood forecasting and water management forecasting needs, and be applied sequentially over time to build an effective, consistent national river forecast program to support objective decision making.

Riverside Technology, inc. (RTi) is working with the U.S. National Weather Service and Mexico’s Comision Nacional del Agua (CNA) to develop and implement state-of-the-art river forecast systems for a number of river basins in Mexico. RTi started to develop the first forecast system in 1997 in the Río Fuerte River Basin in northwestern Mexico, and the next year developed another forecast system for the adjoining Río Yaqui River Basin. Both basins include several large multi-purpose reservoirs that provide irrigation, municipal water supply, flood control, hydropower, and recreation.

In 2000 RTi completed a river forecast system for the Río Bravo (Río Grande River) on the Texas-Mexico border. A highlight of the Río Bravo forecast system was the international cooperation developed between CNA and the West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) in Texas, including international exchange of data. In the same year, another forecast system was completed for the Río Panuco, which drains into the Gulf of Mexico, and passes through a flat, wide floodplain, and is subject to frequent flooding. This system was unique because much of the development was undertaken by CNA engineers with training, assistance, and direction from RTi. In 2004 this system was expanded to include the adjacent Río San Fernando and Río Soto la Marina basins. A forecast system also has been implemented for two river basins in north Central Mexico, the Nazas and Aguanaval Rivers. A new forecast center will be established this year to operate forecast systems for two additional basins on the Pacific Coast, the Río Culiacan and the Río Sinaloa.

To implement these river forecast systems, RTi and CNA staff collect and analyze historical and real-time hydrometeorological data, including precipitation, streamflow, temperature, evaporation, and reservoir data. These data are used to develop hydrologic and hydraulic models. RTi calibrates the parameters for each model by running the model with historical data inputs and comparing the simulation to observed streamflow. The calibrated parameters are used in the operational system that RTi installs in CNA offices. RTi provides extensive training and support services to CNA so that the systems can be maintained and eventually enhanced and expanded by CNA.

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